The recent hurricanes, Katrina and Rita, have been powerful reminders of how destructive the forces of nature can be, and how preparation for them can mitigate their effects. Avian influenza, commonly referred to as “bird flu” is also a powerful force of nature that we must prepare for—or suffer the potentially devastating health and financial consequences. A report of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project, Mapping the Global Future, has identified a global bird-flu pandemic as the single most important threat to the global economy.1
Bird flu actually began infecting humans in 1997, eight years ago. However, the risk of a bird-flu pandemic has increased dramatically in the last year. Many experts and organizations have recently been sounding an alarm—as the following quotes point out:
“Most infectious disease experts [now] believe that the world stands on the verge of an influenza [bird flu] pandemic.” — Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the National Academies
"If ever there was a time when the risk [of a bird flu pandemic] was higher than usual it is now." —Dr. Julie Gerberding, Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
“The world is now in the gravest possible danger of a [bird flu] pandemic.” —World Health Organization (WHO) regional director Shigeru Omi
“While the severity of the next [bird flu] pandemic cannot be predicted, modeling studies suggest that its effect in the United States could be severe.” — U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)
“The most serious known health threat the world is facing today—avian influenza [bird flu]. The timing cannot be predicted, but rapid international spread is certain once the susceptible virus appears. This is a grave danger for all people in all countries.” —Dr. Lee Jong-wook, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO)
“We could be heading for a global catastrophe [i.e., a global bird flu pandemic].” —Dr. Robert Webster, Influenza Researcher at St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis
“I don’t want to over-hype this,” says Andrew Cuthbertson, chief scientific officer at vaccine manufacturer CSL in Melbourne . “But the SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome] situation, or the tsunami, or the recent hurricane [Katrina] would be minor events compared [with] a global [bird] flu pandemic.” —The Australian News
“If an avian influenza strain was to develop into a human influenza strain that could be efficiently transmitted between humans, the potential damage caused by a resulting human influenza [bird flu] pandemic would be enormous.” —Dr. Amar Bhat, Chair of the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Health Task Force
“If an influenza [bird flu] pandemic occurs before adequate preparations have been made, this could result in a public health emergency of unprecedented scale and economic crisis due to excess morbidity [illness] and mortality [death] in adults of working age, social disruption, and panic.” —Influenza Vaccine Supply (IVS) International Task Force
“A new [bird flu] pandemic would claim between 5 million and 150 million people, Nabarro said.” —Dr. David Nabarro, World Health Organization (WHO)
“With globalization, a new [bird flu] pandemic can be expected to cross the globe in days not weeks. Pandemic viruses have historically infected one third or more of large populations and have lead to tens of millions of deaths.” — U.S. Dept. of Health & Human Services (HHS)
“Whatever scenario, even the most optimistic, the worldwide [vaccine] production capacity will be clearly insufficient in case of [bird flu] pandemic.” —Influenza Vaccine Supply (IVS) International Task Force
“We are not prepared [for a bird flu pandemic].” —Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Harvard School of Public Health
1. Karesh WB, Cook RA: The Human-Animal Link. Foreign Affairs, July/August 2005;84:46
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